DFC

I've looked for cross-country comparisons of residents' trust in government, and so far this OECD metric is the best I've found, and the range is quite significant from Switzerland at the very trusting end (84% responding "yes" to the question of confidence in the government) to 31% from Americans, which could explain their tendency to be anti-CBDC.

The Atlantic Council published an article that argues that if the U.S. Federal Reserve doesn't initiate a digital dollar strategy domestically there is a significant risk that the United States will be missing in action regarding cross-border payments interoperability. "Driving digital dollar policy through a tokenized banking system and bank-issued stablecoins will do little to address the frictions and costs discussed [in the article]. Markets and central bank reserve policies could easily shift to least-cost alternatives, leaving the Fed with oversight of a smaller universe of economic activity. Actively and publicly exploring CBDC architecture and policy options will at least ensure that U.S. priorities are part of the global conversation - if you are not at the table, you are on the menu!”

The IMF published a summary of the first five chapters of its forthcoming central bank digital currency (CBDC) handbook. These cover a framework to guide countries’ CBDC exploration, as well as implications for monetary policy transmission, capital flow management measures, and financial inclusion.

"This study delves into the benefits and risks of central bank digital currency (CBDC) and examines social adaptation, and education using expert interviews and conference insights. Vital findings stress the need for targeted educational efforts to facilitate CBDC adoption. The research also emphasizes best practices, engaging external experts, and a phased introduction strategy for safe and efficient implementation. Highlighting key stages, it underscores addressing genuine market needs for successful CBDC introduction. Overall, prudent risk management, strategic education, and well-planned phased deployment are crucial for successful CBDC implementation."

"This paper presents a money view analysis of the recent crypto innovation of stablecoins, which have seen a remarkable rise and more recently some spectacular collapses. By analogizing on-chain with offshore, and developing an extended analogy of stablecoins with Eurodollars, we reveal the primitive character of the existing on-chain liquidity mechanism which supports the promise of par settlement by existing on-chain stablecoin models. Liquidity, not solvency, is the issue confronted by par settlement."

R3's Jack Fletcher does a nice dismantling of the dystopian case against central bank digital currency (CBDC). First he points out that there are technical solutions to privacy available through distributed ledger technology (DLT) infrastructure that far surpass anything that is available in existing digital solutions, so a CBDC could be as private as cash. Secondly, in a world of payment options, why would anyone use a surveillance CBDC when they could simply use Visa or Mastercard or cash instead? And access to cash is something that no government or central bank is keen to remove. Indeed, they must now step in as consumer preferences drive it to redundancy. But with cash use declining as a global trend, Jack does acknowledge that society must consider a future world whereby it no longer exists and our privacy and our freedom to disobey is removed with it.

The IMF published a paper that develops a model to determine the conditions in which the introduction of an interest-bearing CBDC would lead to lower deposits and lending in the banking sector. It finds that richer households increase their holdings of deposits as banks increase deposit interest rates in reaction to the CBDC introduction, which is offset by poorer households switching from deposits to the CBDC. Total deposits are more likely to fall when the mass of poorer households is large and when it is relatively costly to access bank accounts, which tends to be the case in emerging market and developing economy countries. However, even then the impact on lending is quantitatively small if banks have access to other forms of funding, such as wholesale or central bank financing.

The current draft of the digital euro legislation calls for increased privacy for close-proximity offline payments, which is seen as consistent with the European Union AML/CFT framework risk-based approach. The European Data Protection Board (EDPB) and European Data Protection Supervisor (EDPS) suggest increased privacy for low-value online payments too, but not as private as offline transactions, because online transactions would not be limited to proximity payments, resulting in a potentially attractive model for criminals. Hence, they recommend transaction size limits above which complete checks can occur that are lower for online than offline transactions. However, Atakan Kavuklu suggests equalizing the limits at the higher level for all low-value proximity payments (e.g., those using NFC and Bluetooth connections). He believes this could benefit the acceptance and success of a digital euro.

A Bank for International Settlements (BIS) study found privacy-preserving variations of central bank digital currency (CBDC) design have significant effects on willingness to use CBDC to purchase privacy-sensitive products (e.g., psychiatric services and adult products). It was based on a survey of a nationally representative sample of over 3,500 Korean participants. The willingness to use CBDC substantially increases with the provision of information about the privacy benefits of using it. Finally, these effects vary with respondents' trust in public or private institutions with regard to privacy protection and their demographic characteristics.

"This paper develops a travel-based metric to measure Canadians’ access to cash from automated banking machines (ABMs) and financial institution branches. Our findings indicate that the average distance Canadians need to travel to reach the nearest ABM is 2.0 km, while the average distance to the nearest branch is 4.5 km. Moreover, more than 90% of Canadians live within 5 km of an ABM, and 84% live within 5 km of a branch. The total number of ABMs in Canada increased by 3.7% between 2019 and 2022, and our results show that, overall, access to cash remained stable in that period. However, the total number of branches decreased by 5.2%. The decline in branch coverage is concentrated in rural areas at 7.2%. This may increase the challenge of accessing cash in these regions. Rural Canadians already have less access to cash: they need to drive an average distance of 4.0 km to the nearest ABM and 9.6 km to the nearest branch, each distance twice the national average."

"The original $10,000 cash reporting threshold was set back in 1945 by Henry Morgenthau, a level that was ratified in 1972 after the passage of the Bank Secrecy Act. This level has never been adjusted. (Morgenthau also set a second and lower $1,000 threshohold, but this only applied when banknotes in denominations of $50 or higher were involved). Alas, inflation has been steadily eating into each thresholds' real value. When the Bank Secrecy Act was passed, $10,000 was worth $75,000 in today's dollars. In Morgenthau's time it was equal to $173,000. Either way, when the data collection apparatus was first established and the Pragmatic Compromise reached, most people's day-to-day cash withdrawals and deposits would have been sheltered from reported requirements. With the passage of time and inflation, a much wider swathe of civilian cash transactions have lost the protection offered by Morgenthau's $10,000 threshold. That means more snooping. It also means more debanking. Rather than absorbing the growing compliance costs of having "risky" cash-reliant customers, banks are closing accounts"

The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) unveiled three initiatives to ensure the safe and innovative use of digital money in Singapore. First there is the Orchid Blueprint that sets out the technology and infrastructure building blocks that would be required to facilitate digital money transactions in the future. Second there are four new Project Orchid digital money trials, including testing the broad applicability of purpose bound money, which enables money to be directed towards a specific purpose, without requiring money itself to be programmed. Third “live” wholesale CBDC will be tested, with the first pilot focusing on settling retail payments between commercial banks, and future pilots possibly focusing on settling cross-border securities trades. The Orchid Blueprint will support single-currency stablecoins that will be regulated for their value stability under MAS’ proposed regulatory framework for stablecoin activities. The Blueprint will also support tokenized bank deposits issued by MAS-regulated banks.

Jonas Gross and Conrad Kraft argue that, although the slow uptake of retail CBDC pilots and launches may be viewed as disappointing by some, it isn't uncommon among transformative payment technologies (e.g., credit cards, online banking and e-wallets). They provide a number of key factors that can guide the gradual transition to wider-spread CBDC adoption, such as education and awareness, maintaining a focus on technological advancements and security, developing regulations that support CBDC growth, and collaborating with all stakeholders, including merchants, banks and payment service providers. And most importantly, "CBDC must offer unique features that surpass the capabilities of existing payment instruments... A CBDC that merely replicates current digital money, differing only in its central bank backing (largely imperceptible to potential users), won't attract widespread use."

The Human Rights Foundation (HRF) launched a central bank digital currency (CBDC) tracker that focuses on civil liberties and human rights impacts. of people living under authoritarian regimes. According to tracker, central banks in 119 countries are currently researching, piloting, or deploying CBDCs, and the HRF estimates that 3.7 billion people (46% of the world population) are living under autocracies currently experimenting with CBDCs. The coverage is similar to that provided by the Atlantic Council's CBDC tracker, and similarly double counts currency zone countries to pump up the numbers, which the crowd-sourced CBDCTracker.org does not do.

The IMF launched its Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) Virtual Handbook, a reference guide for policymakers and experts at central banks and ministries of finance. It also serves as the basis for the IMF’s engagement with country authorities and other stakeholders. The CBDC Handbook aims to collect and share knowledge, lessons, empirical findings, and frameworks to address policymakers’ most frequently asked questions on CBDCs. As the IMF's body of knowledge and analysis grows, it will continue to add about five chapters every year aiming to provide about twenty chapters by 2026. Moreover, chapters will be periodically updated, reflecting evolving views.

The National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) kicked off a central bank digital currency (CBDC) pilot involving second tier banks and their clients. The architecture of the platform allows the use of digital tenge by opening a digital account in the mobile application of the banks, between which users can make payments and money transfers. Also, Almaty city administration will distribute automated social support payments using smart contract technology. Also, participating banks have issued digital cards in cooperation with international payment systems like MasterCard and Visa, so that . holders can make digital tenge payments and transfers with familiar form factors.

The United Nations has published a sandbox framework that maps out the steps and key elements for the designing and operationalizing central bank digital currency (CBDC). First a proof of concept (PoC) is used as part of the selection process for the CBDC issuing system, and then the sandbox is used to test the basic capabilities of the platform to issue CBDC securely. Then banks and other payment service providers (PSPs) are brought in to test settlement functions. When key criteria have been met, then the CBDC can be released for pilots with real CBDC for use with selected groups of users, merchants, and other stakeholders. The framework was developed in collaboration with the Maldives Monetary Authority, and the work goes back at least to September 2022.

“China is simultaneously developing two ambitious projects that aim to digitize key parts of its economy and, if successful, may have broad implications for economies beyond its borders. Often conflated, the Digital Yuan (数字人民币, shùzì rénmínbì, also known as e-CNY) and the Blockchain-based Service Network (BSN, 区块链服务网络, qūkuàiliàn fúwù wǎngluò) are distinct technologies—and the success of either is not uniquely predicated on that of the other. But experts, as well as the organizations spearheading these projects, suggest that they have the potential to augment one another in the future.”

The Eastern Caribbean Central Bank (ECCB) is preparing for a full "commercial deployment" of DCash, the central bank digital currency (CBDC) it has been piloting since March 2021. Governor Timothy Antoine said the ECCB "intends to move forward with alacrity" on the CBDC project, "and will conclude its pilot [by end-2023] and launch DCash 2.0, which is commercial deployment".

There have been 609 depegs among large cap fiat-backed stablecoins so far this year, according to Moody’s Analytics. Depegs are defined by the price of stablecoins fluctuating by more than three percent in a day against their fiat currency peg. Among a total of 1,914 depegs up to mid-September 2023, large cap stablecoins represented 609 depegs. By comparison, in 2022, there were 707 large cap depegs (including the top five stablecoins by market cap, including Ethereum blockchain’s DAI) and a total of 2,847 depegs.

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) published a paper that provides an overview of the evolution of the stablecoin market and examines whether stablecoins are actually “stable”. It studies 68 stablecoins and shows that none of them have been able to maintain parity with their pegs at all times. Moreover, it argues that there is currently no guarantee that stablecoin issuers could redeem users’ stablecoins in full and on demand. For these reasons, it concludes that the current crop of stablecoins don’t meet the key criteria for being a safe store of value and a trustworthy means of payment in the real economy. The paper also highlights some significant data gaps.

[May 2021] "The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) has embarked on a study to investigate the feasibility, desirability and appropriateness of a central bank digital currency (CBDC) as electronic legal tender, for general-purpose retail use, complementary to cash. A retail CBDC can be defined as a digital form of cash aimed at providing the best attributes of both cash and electronic payments."

[January 2020] "In terms of the road ahead, the ECB will continue to assess the costs and benefits of issuing a central bank digital currency (CBDC) that would ensure that the general public remains able to use central bank money even if the use of physical cash eventually declines. However, the prospect of central bank initiatives should neither discourage nor crowd out private market-led solutions for fast and efficient retail payments in the euro area. We are looking closely into the feasibility and merits of a CBDC, also because it could have major implications for the financial sector and for the transmission of monetary policy. At the end of 2019 we created an expert task force at the ECB that will work closely with the national central banks to study the feasibility of a euro area CBDC in various forms, covering all the practical aspects, including how to minimise possible unintended side-effects."

"Mastercard has completed the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's (HKMA) e-HKD Pilot Programme, which demonstrated the efficacy of the Mastercard Multi-Token Network solution to settle Web3 transactions involving decentralized applications and digital assets, such as NFTs. The pilot also showcased the potential for seamless funding and settlement in and out of Web3 marketplaces via a retail central bank digital currency (CBDC), such as e-HKD in the future.